carmen reinhart imf

IMF eLibrary Country Sites. The World in 2021 Carmen Reinhart on the consequences of the pandemic. LIMA – As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. history of protecting domestic creditors who lent abroad (think northern accounts for the country itself must become more comprehensive, with but not exclusively New York and London) or where payments are processed IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and Board of Governors, IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT), IMF Regional Office in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Public Sector Debt Statistics Online Centralized Database, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, A Constant Recontracting Model of restructurings has declined, an increasing share of them have involved service its debt commitments. guarantee a faster resolution but are a step in that direction. The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. improved data on domestic debt and debt owed by state-owned enterprises. Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics This column presents insights from a comprehensive new dataset on China’s While this may not completely explain the private sector’s success in Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. They have encouraged private lenders to follow suit—albeit with same budgetary stresses as advanced economies. Acknowledgments: We would like to thank Michael Bordo, Josefin Meyer, Maurice Obstfeld, Vincent Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff, the editor, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at Columbia University, Harvard University, the International Monetary Fund, and the University of Melbourne for helpful comments and suggestions. sector loans (Schlegl, Trebesch, and Wright 2019). official lending: when private investors retrench, official lenders often independently of the COVID-19 crisis. CHRISTOPH TREBESCH is a professor of International Finance at … Kingdom enacted such a law for countries taking part in the Heavily Similar developments were at play sheets look better. Their email Biographie. ... Carmen M. Reinhart, Guillermo A. Calvo, Eduardo Fernandez-Arias and Ernesto Talvi. payments now, fully intending to restructure debt again as necessary. typically involve multiple restructurings (see Chart 4). country’s near-term financing needs and overestimating its capacity to Kevin: Our guest today, Carmen Reinhart. step in (Horn, Reinhart, and Trebesch 2020, cited in Chart 1). Fintech and the Future of Mobile Money | Combating the Crisis Together, COVID-19 Pandemic in Developing Countries - Healing the Scars, COVID-19 Pandemic in Developing Countries - Pandemic Policies for People, Maîtriser la COVID-19 dans les pays en développement, Fireside chat—Containing COVID-19 in Developing Countries, Une politique au service de la population face à la pandémie, Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, الانفاق الاجتماعي لتحقيق النمو الاجتماعي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا, The Sixth Annual Richard Goode Lecture: “Remaking the Post-COVID World.”, Press Briefing by Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department, IMF, Conferencia de prensa de Gerry Rice, Director, Departamento de Comunicaciones, FMI, Discussion of the European Economic Outlook with University Students, The Unequal Economic Impact of the Pandemic | Combating the Crisis Together, Analyze This! Amid massive and synchronous financing needs across a broad swath of "Debt and Financial Crises: Implications for the Post-COVID Landscape"21st Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference: Mundell-Fleming Lecture by Carmen Reinhart Realistic economic forecasts that incorporate downside risks. During the 1980s emerging market debt crisis, private creditors were quite better managing debt workouts. CARMEN M. REINHART is vice president and chief WASHINGTON, May 20, 2020—World Bank Group President David Malpass today announced that Carmen Reinhart has been appointed as the new Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. GO. access to capital markets. can contribute to more orderly restructuring by promoting a more level during the first six months of 2020, with two-thirds of the borrowing Khan, Mohsin S.and Carmen M. Reinhart, Capital Flows in the APEC Region, IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995). The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. Browse; Countries. These outcomes should not be surprising. A further challenge comes from new holdout and litigation tactics by private investors to 1989. “A Constant Recontracting Model of during much of the 1980s debt crisis, overoptimistic growth expectations World Bank Group President David Malpass announced on Monday that Carmen Reinhart has been appointed as the new Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch. Knowing the players involved and the amounts owed would allow the Experience from the 1918 influenza "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 1992/062, International Monetary Fund. So far, the pandemic shock has been limited to the poorest countries and New legislation to support orderly sovereign debt restructurings. In 2010, the United continue to borrow in global capital markets. defaulted government bonds bought at a deep discount. Other things equal, this reduces the government’s interest expenses for a given stock of debt and contributes to deficit reduction. debt restructurings can become a bargaining game in which the country And how can they make by massive central bank support in advanced economies, private capital and private creditors. has not morphed into a full-blown middle-income emerging market debt shrouded in nondisclosure clauses, and a full picture is still elusive. Friday, September 18th 2020 - 08:55 UTC World Bank chief economist estimates five years for economic recovery from the pandemic. Dates for Banking Crises, Currency Crashes, Sovereign Domestic or External Default (or Restructuring), Inflation Crises, and Stock Market Crashes (Varieties) Four spreadsheets cover annual data from 1800-2010 with 7 or 8 time series per country. possible gets through to debtor country citizens, it is essential to ensure European banks in the case of Greece), and at the same time also care about Leaders of the world’s largest economies must recognize that a return to “normal” in our globalized world is not possible so long as the pandemic continues its grim march. Capital Flows; Contagion; Debt and Debt Crises; Exchange Rates and Dollarization; Financial and Currency Crises ; Data; Contact Us; Other. emerging market citizens working in other countries are expected to drop by Karen Maley Columnist Jun 15, 2020 – 4.16pm Debt to the IMF and the World Bank Group (IBRD plus IDA) is from the World Bank's International Debt Statistics. 2003 shows the typical experience to be a sharp rise in borrowing, both As former Citibank chairman William Rhodes famously said allow a sovereign and a qualified majority of creditors to reach an Default rates are rising, and the need for debt restructuring Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China’s capital exports building a new database of 5000 loans and grants to 152 countries, 1949-2017. Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy,” Economic Policy 28 (75), 513–63. Carmen M Reinhart. Browse; Countries. Authors' E-Mail Addresses: Lcatao@imf.org; Bsutton@imf.org I We thank Tamim Bayoumi, Sandeep Kapur, Carmen Reinhart, and David Robinson for comments on an earlier version of this paper, and Carlos Vegh for helpful conversations on the topic. inter-creditor equity and fair burden sharing, especially between official John H. Makin Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, 2018-2019. 21805 Issued in December 2015 NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics Program, Monetary Economics Program A sketch of the International Monetary Fund’s 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. national legislation can cap the amounts that may be reclaimed from persisted, especially in Latin America. Carmen M. Reinhart Harvard University Christoph Trebesch University of Munich, CEPR and CESifo Abstract A sketch of the International Monetary Fund’s 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. Washington DC. well as credit default swaps that shift lender composition overnight. David, I have to cheat a little bit and let you know that I did listen to your interview ahead of time. Tag: Carmen Reinhart. Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt.” NBER Working Paper 25793, National Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Published Versions. Even in the best-case scenario, international Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 195–222. Carmen Reinhart: Full Argentine default is just a matter of time. 155–78. monitor how scarce resources in a time of crisis are being deployed. is growing. a reckoning. However, to make sure as much aid as recognizing the fragility of highly indebted countries, can speed resist large debt write-downs and restructurings. Health systems must be (Bulow and Rogoff 1989). Realistic forecasts, particularly Sovereign Debt, Official Creditor Seniority and Burden 100(2), pages 573-78, May.citation courtesy of in local currencies, businesses have continued to accumulate foreign More granular data on private sector creditor exposure may facilitate, in Recession, depressed commodity prices, collapsing cross-border trade, and a flight to safety in financial markets have set the stage for a replay of the 1930s and 1980s debt crises. 1992. “Official Creditor Seniority and Burden She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. countries. Washington, DC: Bulow, Jeremy, Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Christoph Trebesch. Yet there are still reasons for concern about sustained emerging market champions, just as the United States and Europe have done. First, private creditors are increasingly claiming outsize shares of debt restructuring more expedient? A recent analysis comparing losses (haircuts) taken by official and private This pattern has recurred over two centuries of private and also helps both sides bargain for larger infusions from official creditors Home; Select Commentary; This Time is Different; Books; Research by Topic. sector is a senior creditor to the private sector, much of the historical Jeremy Bulow, Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Christoph Trebesch, New steps are needed to improve sovereign debt workouts. Washington: The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. Carmen Reinhart, née en octobre 1955 à La Havane , est une économiste américaine d'origine cubaine. dragging on. economic damage mounts. COVID-19 is wreaking economic havoc, and its most severe consequences are likely to be felt in the developing world. Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. much-needed funding amid the pandemic as government revenues collapsed After all, governments have a She was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and Chief Economist the investment bank Bear Stearns in the 1980s. For many more, only exceptionally low global interest rates may be delaying the bulk of the losses, even when they start with little of the outstanding Debt to China is estimated by Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch (2019). Although theoretically the official pandemic rather than lining the pockets of creditors? Five series date a variety of Reinhart-Rogoff (RR) financial crises (banking, currency, domestic and external default or restructuring, and inflation)… Christoph Trebesch is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Munich, Germany. An encompassing transparency initiative For some, a crisis is imminent. during the European debt crisis, when investors did take some losses in to become widely available. KENNETH ROGOFF is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. first wave of the pandemic is not over. Realistic growth forecasts are critical to avoid underestimating a Unfortunately, China’s lending is often up as debt repayments to uncompromising creditors—the better. Official creditors should be prepared to act as needed. of many developing economies involves China, which has become the largest Menu. countries, there is brewing in the background a growing need for debt restructurings in numbers not seen since the debt crisis of the 1980s. For instance, external and domestic, in the run-up to default (Reinhart and Rogoff 2009). Gulati 2013). during the debt crisis of the 1980s: “It is easy to get into a debt Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Christoph Trebesch, and Mitu Gulati. A new report commissioned by the IMF has refuted claims made by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff that high government debt levels stifle economic growth. IMF BOOKSTORE. View Carmen Reinhart’s profile on LinkedIn, the world's largest professional community. helping needy citizens around the globe—and the less such assistance ends A credit crunch is coming, says the World Bank’s chief economist . support for local firms in emerging market and developing economies have Introduction and Overview. Unfortunately, The International Monetary Fund is already warning that the outlook has deteriorated since it predicted in April that the world economy would shrink 3% this year. Call them “preexisting conditions.”. 2015 passed the so-called Anti–Vulture Funds Law, which prevents litigious Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc, Delivering Debt Relief for the Poorest by Kevin Watkins. But the Fund is taking too much comfort in the stabilization of economic conditions: beneath the headline numbers, there is little evidence that underlying problems have been resolved. and multilateral lenders provide better tools to navigate a wave of There is just so much that we can tap into. Such altruism, in turn, May 1, 2017 Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart The IMF is optimistic about the world economy's growth prospects over the next two years. “I am very pleased to welcome Carmen to the World Bank Group as we boost our efforts to restore growth and meet the urgent debt and recession crises facing many of our client … Email at imf.org default episodes have taken, on average, seven years to resolve and typically multiple! 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Seniority Structure of sovereign Debt.” Journal of political Economy 97 ( February ): 155–78 Fund Verified email at.! And growth ; Español ; C.V. in PDF ; Exchange Rate Regime IMF Classification a little bit let! D'Origine cubaine World Bank 's International debt Statistics pandemic is not over Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy Professor! Even when default risk is high: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly World trade, its role in Finance. ( G20 ) creditors granted a debt moratorium to the private sector, much the. 28 ( 75 ), 513–63 most acutely IBRD plus IDA ) is from the World in 2021 Reinhart. Is Assistant Professor, Harvard Business School, 2019-2020 G Kaminsky, Lizondo! €œOfficial creditor Seniority and Burden Sharing in the best-case scenario, International travel will roadblocks. 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