It controls the big three energy companies: PetroChina, Sinopec, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Should Beijing feel compelled to use force to break the stalemate, for example by imposing martial law and arresting thousands of protesters, Hong Kong will turn into a de facto police state. She writes about the U.S. Economy for The Balance. Kimberly Amadeo has 20 years of experience in economic analysis and business strategy. It’s difficult for an autocrat to determine who’s truly loyal and who’s going along until the wind changes. Nomura estimates China's economy will grow by only 1% in 2020, causing millions of job losses. World Bank. View a high-resolution version of this graphic here. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, tightly controls the yuan to dollar value. China doesn't offer benefits to people who've moved from the farms to the cities to work. When in March 2018 he pushed through the removal of term limits on the office of the presidency (as distinct from his more important title of CCP general secretary, which carries no such limitation on term), Xi effectively declared his desire to remain in power for life. It recommends advances in technology, specifically big data, aircraft engines, and clean cars. China is now the world's biggest producer of aluminum and steel.. China is also staring at a significant demographic crunch in a few years’ time, with both a shrinking workforce and a rapidly aging population, creating a potential fiscal nightmare. It’s captured in his reprisal of an old Mao Zedong quote, “Party, government, military, civilian, and academic; east, west, south, north, and center, the party leads everything.” This CCP-centric conception of Chinese modernity now imbues the country’s political culture, leaving little to no room for nonparty individuals or organizations to claim a leading role in the story of China’s rise. “Urban Population (% of Total Population) – China.” Accessed Oct. 12, 2020. China's leaders realize they must reform the economy. But China was far freer beforehand. As of this writing, the question of how Beijing will respond to the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong hangs uneasily over every discussion of the city’s future. While economists say China's economic data can't always be trusted, they now have a new dilemma - there is no data. Trump, Xi, and the economy: The future of US-China economic competition Tue, Jun 9, 2020 3:30 PM ONLINE EVENT – A discussion on the rapidly shifting economic outlook for US-China strategic competition. For next year, the downward pressure will remain high. Chinese companies use this knowledge to make the products themselves.. While this had the intended effect of insulating China from the full force of the economic slump, the longer-term and unintended impact was to expand and solidify China, Inc., the sprawling system of state-owned enterprises and quasi-private companies that are sustained by the CCP’s management of the economy. It also created a class of ultra-rich professionals who want more individual liberties. Some favorable factors have stabilized the economy and turned it for the better. Pew Research Center. His main potential rivals at the top of the party have already been imprisoned, from Bo Xilai to Sun Zhengcai, but a new round of purges could be far more sweeping—and potentially deadly. People have only been willing to turn over personal power to the state in return for rapid increases in personal wealth. None of those threats has materialized, nor are any of them likely to. The upcoming 20th Party Congress in 2022 might then set the scene for a more concerted effort to unseat Xi, with the victorious coalition pushing for a more tolerant approach to civil society and a more reform-minded economic policy regime. The Future of China’s Economy: Yuppies ... companies have relied on China for years to fuel their sales and fear a consumer fallout from the country's slowing economic growth. This could cause another revolution. Accessed Oct. 12, 2020. The Future of China’s Economy. From a massive system of detention and surveillance in Xinjiang to the obliteration of the country’s once robust intellectual discourse, Xi and his allies have moved to tighten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control over nearly all aspects of economic, political, and social life. And if a political system acts as if there is a cult of personality even if there isn’t a shred of sincerity, the byproduct is nonetheless a policy environment that careens toward hypersensitive political correctness and a stifled intellectual climate. Is China Guilty of Currency Manipulation? Why Biden could lose the left, the peril of persuasion in the Big Tech age, and old rivals join forces in Kashmir. In order to alleviate the pressure of economic downturn, China must do two things. China's state-dominated economy is built to win the future. Local governments are charged with providing social services but are constrained in the taxes they can collect to fund them. 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